Publications
POPULATION CYCLES
King, A.A., Shrestha, S., Harvill, E.T. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2009 Evolution of acute infections and the invasion-persistence trade-off. American Naturalist 173:446-455 [pdf]
Ferrari, M.J., Grais, R.F., Conlan, A.J.K., Bharti, N., Bjornstad, O.N., Wolfson, L.J., Guerin, P.J., Djibo, A. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Seasonality, stochasticity and the dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-684. [abstract][pdf][supplement]
Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Tobin, P.C and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Allee effects and pulsed invasion by the gypsy moth. Nature 444: 361-363. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]
Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Geographical variation in the periodicity of gypsy moth outbreaks. Ecography 29:367-374. [abstract] [pdf]
Johnson, D.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2006. Landscape mosaic induces traveling waves of insect outbreaks. Oecologia 148: 51-60. [abstract] [pdf]
Økland, B., and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. A resource depletion model of forest insect outbreaks. Ecology 87: 283-290. [abstract] [pdf]
Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and McManus, M.L. 2005. Circumpolar variation in periodicity and synchrony among gypsy moth populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 74:882-892 [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N., Nisbet, R. M. and Fromentin, J.-M. 2004. Trends and cohort resonant effects in age-structured populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 73: 1157-1167 [abstract] [pdf] [mathematica supplement]
Johnson, D. M., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Liebhold, A. M. 2004. Landscape geometry and traveling waves in the larch budmoth. Ecology Letters 7: 967-974. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]
Xia, Y., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for pre-vaccination epidemiological coupling and dynamics. American Naturalist 164: 267-281. [abstract] [pdf] [news@nature.com]
Hudson, P.J. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2003) Vole stranglers and lemmings cycles. Science 302: 797-798. [pdf] [Gilg et al].
Bjørnstad, O.N., Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M. & Baltensweiler, W. (2002) Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European alps. Science 298: 1020-1023. [abstract & pdf] [full-text (html)] [mirrored abstract] [mirrored pdf] [supplement] [commentary]
Bjørnstad, O.N. & Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Noisy clockwork: time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science 293: 638-643. [abstract & pdf] [full-text (html)] [Supplement] [mirrored pdf] [mirrored supplement]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. (2001) The impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature 401: 1001-1006. [abstract] [pdf] [Supplement] [Splus code] [Commentary]
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414: 716-723. [abstract] [pdf] [quicktime movie] [supplement] [Commentary]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Estimating epidemiological scaling with a time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 169-184. [abstract] [pdf] [download data]
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Finkenstädt, B. & (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Scaling predictability, noise and determinism with the time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 185-202. [abstract] [pdf] [download data]
Bjørnstad, O. N. (2000) Cycles and synchrony: two historical ‘experiments’ and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 869-873. [abstract] [pdf] [erratum]
Childs, J.E. , Curns, A., Dey, M., Real, L.A. , Feinstein, L., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Krebs, J.W. (2000) Predicting the local dynamics of epizootic rabies among raccoons in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 97: 13666–13671 [abstract] [pdf] [Commentary]
Bjørnstad, O. N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) Cycles and trends in cod population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 96:5066-5071. [abstract] [pdf]
Stenseth, N.C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W., Fromentin, J.-M., Gjøsæter, J., and Gray, J.S. (1999) Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and inter-cohort density-dependence and stochastic processes. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B 266:1645-1654. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Sait, S. M. and Thompson, D. J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology 67:110-126. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N., Stenseth, N. C., Saitoh, T. and Lingjære, O. C. (1998) Mapping regional transitions in dynamics of Clethrionomys rufocanus: spectral densities and functional analysis. Researches on Population Ecology 40:77-84. [abstract] [preprint 0.2Mb] [reprint 7.2Mb]
Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Saitoh, T. (1998) Seasonal Forcing on the Dynamics of Clethrionomys rufocanus: Modeling the Geographic Gradient in Population Dynamics. Researches on Population Ecology 40:85-95. [abstract] [preprint 0.2Mb] [reprint 9Mb] [commentary]
Kendall, B. E., Prendergast, J. and Bjørnstad, O. N. (1998) The macroecology of population dynamics: animal population cycles in the Northern hemisphere. Ecology Letters 1:160-164. [abstract] [pdf].
Stenseth, N.C., Falck, W., Chan, K.-C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Tong, H., O'Donoghue, M., Boonstra, R., Boutin, S., Krebs, C. J. and Yoccoz, N. G. (1998) From pattern to process: phase- and density-dependence in the canadian lynx cycle. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 95:15430-15435. [abstract] [pdf]
Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Krebs, C. J. (1997) Population regulation in snowshoe hare and lynx populations: asymmetric food web configurations between the snowshoe hare and the lynx. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 94:5147-5152. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Champely, S., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh, T. (1996) Cyclicity and stability of grey-sided voles, Clethrionomys rufocanus, of Hokkaido: spectral and Principal components analyses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London Series B 351:867-875. [abstract] [pdf 1.5Mb] [economy pdf 0.4Mb]
Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (1996) Is spacing behaviour coupled with predation causing the microtine density cycle? A synthesis of current process-oriented and pattern-oriented studies. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 263:1423-1435. [abstract] [pdf]
Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Saitoh, T. (1996) A gradient from stable to cyclic populations of Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 263:1117-1126. [abstract] [pdf 1.7Mb] [economy pdf 0.5Mb] [commentary]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) A geographic gradient in small rodent density fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:127-133. [abstract] [pdf 1.3Mb] [economy pdf 0.4Mb]
Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Bootstrap estimated uncertainty of the dominant Lyapunov exponent for Holarctic microtine rodents. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 261:159-165. [abstract] [pdf 1.2Mb] [economy 0.4Mb]
Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Voles and lemmings - chaos and uncertainty in fluctuating populations. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:363-370. [abstract] [pdf 1.5Mb][economy 0.4Mb] [commentary]
SPATIAL DYNAMICS
Tobin, P.C., Robinet, C., Johnson, D.M., Whitmire, S.L., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2009. The role of Allee effects in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), invasions. Population Ecology 51: 373-384. [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Liebhold, A.M. and Johnson, D.M. 2008. Transient synchronization following invasion: revisiting Moran’s model and a case study. Population Ecology 50: 379-389. [pdf]
Yamanaka, T., Tanaka, K,, Hamasaki, K., Nakatani, Y., Iwasaki, N., Sprague, D.S. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2009. Evaluating the relative importance of patch quality and connectivity in a damselfly metapopulation from a one-season survey. Oikos 118:67-76. [pdf]
Bharti, N., Xia, Y., Bjornstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics. PLoS ONE 3(4): e1941 [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15: 265-277. [pdf]
Satake, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2008. A resource budget model to explain intraspecific variation in mast reproductive dynamics. Ecological research 23: 3-10. [abstract][pdf]
Yamanaka, T., Tanaka, K. Otuka, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2007. Detecting spatial structures and interactions in the ragweed (Ambrosia artemissifolia L.) and the ragweed beetle (Ophraella communa LeSage) populations. [abstract][pdf]
Tobin, P.C., Whitmire, S., Johnson, D.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2007. Invasion speed is affected by geographic variation in the strength of Allee effects. Ecology Letters 10:36-43. [abstract] [pdf]
Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Tobin, P.C and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Allee effects and pulsed invasion by the gypsy moth. Nature 444: 361-363. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]
Ferrari, M., Bjørnstad, O.N., Partain, J. and Antonovics, J. 2006. A gravity model for the spread of a pollinator-borne plant pathogen. American Naturalist 168: 294-303. [abstract] [pdf]
Viboud, C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Smith, D.L., Simonsen, L., Miller, M.A. and Grenfell, B.T. 2006. Synchrony, waves and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312: 447-451. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement] [comment]
Liebhold, A.M, Johnson, D.M. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity. Population Ecology 48:131-138. [abstract][pdf]
Johnson, D.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2006. Landscape mosaic induces traveling waves of insect outbreaks. Oecologia 148: 51-60. [abstract] [pdf]
Tobin, P.C. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Roles of dispersal, stochasticity, and nonlinear dynamics in the spatial structuring of seasonal natural enemy-victim populations. Population Ecology 47:221-227. [abstract] [pdf]
Økland, B., Liebhold, A.M, Bjørnstad, O.N., Erbilgin, N. and Krokene, P. 2005. Are bark beetle outbreaks less synchronous than forest Lepidoptera outbreaks? Oecologia 146:365-372. [abstract] [pdf]
Humston, R., Mortensen, D. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Anthropogenic forcing on the spatial dynamics of an agricultural weed: the case of the common sunflower. Journal of Applied Ecology 42: 863-872. [abstract] [pdf]
Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and McManus, M.L. 2005. Circumpolar variation in periodicity and synchrony among gypsy moth populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 74:882-892 [abstract] [pdf]
Seabloom, E.W., Bjørnstad, O.N., Bolker, B.M. and Reichman, O.J. 2005. The spatial signature of environmental heterogeneity, dispersal, and competition in successional grasslands. Ecological Monographs 75: 199-214. [abstract][pdf]
Zhou, G., Sirichaisinthop, J., Sattabongkot, J., Jones, J., Bjørnstad, O. N., Yan, G. and Cui, L. 2005. Spatio-temporal distribution of falciparum and vivax malaria in Thailand. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 72: 256-262. [abstract] [pdf]
Johnson, D. M., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Liebhold, A. M. 2004. Landscape geometry and traveling waves in the larch budmoth. Ecology Letters 7: 967-974. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]
Liebhold, A., Walter, D. K. and Bjørnstad, O. N. 2004. Spatial synchrony in population dynamics. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 35: 467-490. [abstract] [pdf] [supplemental movie]
Xia, Y., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for pre-vaccination epidemiological coupling and dynamics. American Naturalist 164: 267-281. [abstract] [pdf] [news@nature.com]
Keeling, M. J., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases. pp. 415-445 in I. Hanski, and O. Gaggiotti, eds., Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution of Metapopulations [preprint]
Satake, A., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Kobro. S. 2004. Masting and trophic cascades: interplay between rowan trees, apple fruit moth, and their parasitoid in southern Norway. Oikos 104: 540-550. [abstract] [pdf]
Satake, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2004. Spatial dynamics of seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants. American Naturalist 163: 591-605. [abstract] [pdf]
Økland, B. and Bjørnstad, O. N. (2003) Synchrony and geographical variation of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) during a non-epidemic period. Population Ecology 45: 213-219 [abstract] [pdf].
Liebhold, A., Sork, V., Peltonen, M., Koenig, W., Bjørnstad, O.N., Westfall, R., Elkinton, J., & Knops, J.M.H. 2004. Within-population spatial synchrony in mast seeding of North American oaks. Oikos 104: 156-164. [abstract][pdf]
Tobin, P. C. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2003) Spatial dynamics and cross-correlation in a transient predator-prey system, Journal of Animal Ecology 72: 460-467. [abstract][pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M. & Baltensweiler, W. (2002) Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European alps. Science 298: 1020-1023. [abstract & pdf] [full-text (html)] [mirrored abstract] [mirrored pdf] [supplement] [commentary]
Rees, M., Kelly, D. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2002) Snow tussocks, chaos and the evolution of mast seeding. American Naturalist 160: 44-59. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]
Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Williams, D.W. (2002) Variation in spatial synchrony among forest insect species: roles of regional stochasticity and dispersal. Ecology 83: 3120-3129 [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N. & Bascompte, J. (2001) Synchrony and second order spatial correlation in host-parasitoid systems. Journal of Animal Ecology 70: 924-933. [abstract] [pdf]
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414: 716-723. [abstract] [pdf] [quicktime movie] [supplement] [Commentary]
Bjørnstad, O.N. and Bolker, B. (2000) Canonical functions for dispersal-induced synchrony. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 267: 1787-1794.[abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N. (2000) Cycles and synchrony: two historical ‘experiments’ and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 869-873. [abstract] [pdf] [erratum]
Kendall, B. E., Bjørnstad, O. N., Bascompte, J., Keitt, T.H. and Fagan, W. (2000) Ecological interactions, environmental correlation and spatial synchrony. American Naturalist 155: 628-636. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N., Ims, R. A. and Lambin, X. (1999) Spatial population dynamics: Causes and consequences of spatial synchrony in density fluctuations. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 14:427-431. [abstract] [pdf] [Splus code]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh,T. (1999) Synchrony and scaling in dynamics of voles and mice in northern Japan. Ecology 80:622-637. [abstract] [pdf] [Splus code]
Framstad, E., Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (1997) Limit cycles in Norwegian Lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 264:31-38. [abstract] [pdf 1.5Mb] [economy pdf 0.4Mb]
AGE-/STAGE- STRUCTURE
Cornell, S.J., Bjornstad, O.N., Cattadori, I.M., Boag, B. and Hudson, P.J. 2008. Seasonality, cohort-dependence and the development of immunity in a natural host-nematode system. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 275: 511-518. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]
Cattadori, I.M., Boag, B., Bjørnstad, O.N., Cornell, S.J. and Hudson, P.J. 2005. Peak shift and epidemiology in a seasonal host-nematode system. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 272: 1163-1169. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N., Nisbet, R. M. and Fromentin, J.-M. 2004. Trends and cohort resonant effects in age-structured populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 73: 1157-1167 [abstract] [pdf] [mathematica supplement]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. (2001) The impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature 401: 1001-1006. [abstract] [pdf] [Supplement] [Splus code] [Commentary]
Fromentin, J.-M., Myers, R. A., Bjørnstad, O. N., Stenseth, N. C., Gjøsæter, J. & Christie, H. (2001) Population regulation in cod along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Ecology 82: 567-579. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N.C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) A new test for density-dependent survival: the case of coastal cod populations Ecology 80:1278-1288. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) Cycles and trends in cod population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 96:5066-5071. [abstract] [pdf]
Stenseth, N.C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W., Fromentin, J.-M., Gjøsæter, J., and Gray, J.S. (1999) Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and inter-cohort density-dependence and stochastic processes. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B 266:1645-1654. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Sait, S. M. and Thompson, D. J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology 67:110-126. [abstract] [pdf]
INFECTIOUS DISEASE
King, A.A., Shrestha, S., Harvill, E.T. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2009 Evolution of acute infections and the invasion-persistence trade-off. American Naturalist 173:446-455 [pdf]
Bharti, N., Xia, Y., Bjornstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics. PLoS ONE 3(4): e1941 [pdf]
Restif, O., Wolfe, D.N., Goebel, E.M., Bjornstad, O.N., and Harvill, E.T. 2008. Of mice and men: asymmetric interactions between Bordetella pathogen species. Parasitology 135:1517-1529. [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15: 265-277. [pdf]
Cornell, S.J., Bjornstad, O.N., Cattadori, I.M., Boag, B. and Hudson, P.J. 2008. Seasonality, cohort-dependence and the development of immunity in a natural host-nematode system. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 275: 511-518. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]
Ferrari, M.J., Grais, R.F., Conlan, A.J.K., Bharti, N., Bjornstad, O.N., Wolfson, L.J., Guerin, P.J., Djibo, A. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Seasonality, stochasticity and the dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-684. [abstract][pdf][supplement]
Pomeroy, L.W., Bjornstad, O.N. and Holmes, E.C. 2008. The evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the Paramyxoviridae. Journal of Molecular Evolution 66:98-106 [abstract][pdf]
Grais, R.F., Conlan, A.J.K., Ferrari, M.J., Djibo, A., Le Menach, A., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T., 2008. Time is of the essence: Exploring a measles outbreak response vaccination in Niamey, Niger. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 5:67-74. [abstract][pdf]
Wolfe, D.N., Goebel, E.M., Bjornstad, O.N., Restif, O. and Harvill, E.T. 2007. O-antigen enables Bordetella parapertussis to avoid Bordetella pertussis-Induced Immunity. Infection and Immunity 75: 4972-4979. [abstract][pdf]
Graham, A.L., Cattadori, I.M., Lloyd-Smith, J.O, Ferrari, M.J. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2007. Transmission consequences of coinfection: cytokines writ large? Trends in Parasitology 23: 284-291. [abstract] [pdf]
Viboud, C., Miller, M.A., Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Simonsen, L. 2006. Air Travel and the Spread of Influenza: Important Caveats. PloS Medicine 3: 2159-2960. [abstract] [pdf]
Ferrari, M., Bjørnstad, O.N., Partain, J. and Antonovics, J. 2006. A gravity model for the spread of a pollinator-borne plant pathogen. American Naturalist 168: 294-303. [abstract] [pdf]
Grais, R.F., Ferrari, M.J., Dubraya, C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Grenfell, B.T., Djiboc, A., Fermond, F. and Guerina, P. J. 2006. Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 100: 867-873. [abstract] [pdf]
Ferrari, M.J., Bansal, S., Myers, L.A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Network frailty and the geometry of herd immunity. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 273:2743-2748. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement] [movie]
Viboud, C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Smith, D.L., Simonsen, L., Miller, M.A. and Grenfell, B.T. 2006. Synchrony, waves and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312: 447-451. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement] [comment]
Grenfell, B.T., Williams, C.S., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Banavar, J.R. 2006. Simplifying biological complexity. Nature Physics 2: 212-214. [abstract][pdf]
Kirimanjeswara, G.S., Agosto, L.M., Kennett, M.J., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Harvill, E.T. 2005. Pertussis toxin inhibits neutrophil recruitment to delay antibody-mediated clearance of Bordetella pertussis. Journal of Clinical Investigation 115: 3594-3601. [abstract] [pdf]
Cattadori, I.M., Boag, B., Bjørnstad, O.N., Cornell, S.J. and Hudson, P.J. 2005. Peak shift and epidemiology in a seasonal host-nematode system. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 272: 1163-1169. [abstract] [pdf]
Ferrari, M. J. Bjørnstad, O. N. and Dobson, A.P. 2005. Estimation and inference for R0 of an infectious pathogen using a removal method. Mathematical Bioscience 198: 14-26. [abstract][pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N. and Harvill, E.T. 2005. Evolution and emergence of Bordetella in humans. Trends in Microbiology 13: 355-359 [abstract][pdf preprint]
Grenfell, B.T. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Sexually transmitted diseases: Epidemic cycling and immunity. Nature 433: 366-367. [pdf] [grassly et al]
Zhou, G., Sirichaisinthop, J., Sattabongkot, J., Jones, J., Bjørnstad, O. N., Yan, G. and Cui, L. 2005. Spatio-temporal distribution of falciparum and vivax malaria in Thailand. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 72: 256-262. [abstract] [pdf]
Xia, Y., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for pre-vaccination epidemiological coupling and dynamics. American Naturalist 164: 267-281. [abstract] [pdf] [news@nature.com]
Keeling, M. J., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases. pp. 415-445 in I. Hanski, and O. Gaggiotti, eds., Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution of Metapopulations [preprint]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Estimating epidemiological scaling with a time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 169-184. [abstract] [pdf] [download data]
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Finkenstädt, B. & (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Scaling predictability, noise and determinism with the time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 185-202. [abstract] [pdf] [download data]
Finkenstädt, B., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics: estimation and inference for measles outbreaks. Biostatistics 3: 493-510. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. (2001) The impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature 401: 1001-1006. [abstract] [pdf] [Supplement] [Splus code] [Commentary]
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414: 716-723. [abstract] [pdf] [quicktime movie] [supplement] [Commentary]
Wilson, K., O.N. Bjørnstad, A.P. Dobson, S. Merler, G. Poglayen, S.E. Randolph, A.F. Read, and A. Skorping (2001). Heterogeneities in macroparasite infections: patterns and processes. Pages 6-44 in P. J. Hudson, A. Rizzoli, B.T. Grenfell, H. Heesterbeek and A. P. Dobson, editors. The Ecology of Wildlife Diseases. [abstract] [preprint]
Grenfell, B.T., W. Amos, P. Arneberg, O.N. Bjørnstad, J.V. Greenman, J. Harwood, P. Lanfranchi, A. McLean, R.A. Norman, A.F. Read, and A. Skorping (2002). Visions for future research in wildlife epidemiology. Pages 151-164 in P. J. Hudson, A. Rizzoli, B.T. Grenfell, H. Heesterbeek and A. P. Dobson, editors. The Ecology of Wildlife Diseases.[abstract] [preprint]
Bjørnstad, O. N. (2000) Cycles and synchrony: two historical ‘experiments’ and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 869-873. [abstract] [pdf] [erratum]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Sait, S. M. and Thompson, D. J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology 67:110-126. [abstract] [pdf]
Childs, J.E. , Curns, A., Dey, M., Real, L.A. , Feinstein, L., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Krebs, J.W. (2000) Predicting the local dynamics of epizootic rabies among raccoons in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 97: 13666–13671 [abstract] [pdf][Commentary]
MASTING
Satake, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2008. A resource budget model to explain intraspecific variation in mast reproductive dynamics. Ecological research 23: 3-10. [abstract][pdf]
Satake, A., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Kobro. S. 2004. Masting and trophic cascades: interplay between rowan trees, apple fruit moth, and their parasitoid in southern Norway. Oikos 104: 540-550. [abstract] [pdf]
Satake, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2004. Spatial dynamics of seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants. American Naturalist 163: 591-605. [abstract] [pdf]
Liebhold, A., Sork, V., Peltonen, M., Koenig, W., Bjørnstad, O.N., Westfall, R., Elkinton, J., & Knops, J.M.H. 2004. Within-population spatial synchrony in mast seeding of North American oaks. Oikos 104: 156-164. [abstract][pdf]
Rees, M., Kelly, D. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2002) Snow tussocks, chaos and the evolution of mast seeding. American Naturalist 160: 44-59. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]
POPULATION GENETICS
Bjørnstad, O. N. and Falck, W. (2001) Spatial covariance functions: estimation and testing. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 8: 53-70. [abstract] [pdf] [Splus code]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Iversen, A. and Hansen, M. (1995) The spatial structure of the gene pool of a viviparous population of Poa alpina - environmental controls and spatial constraints. Nordic Journal of Botany 15:347-354. [abstract] [pdf]
RODENT ECOLOGY
Hudson, P.J. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2003) Vole stranglers and lemmings cycles. Science 302: 797-798. [pdf] [Gilg et al].
Bjørnstad, O. N. (2000) Cycles and synchrony: two historical ‘experiments’ and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 869-873. [abstract] [pdf] [erratum]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh,T. (1999) Synchrony and scaling in dynamics of voles and mice in northern Japan. Ecology 80:622-637. [abstract] [pdf] [Splus code]
Saitoh, T., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1999) Density-dependence in voles and mice: a comparative analysis. Ecology 80:638-650. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Andreassen, H. P. and Ims, R. A. (1998) Effects of habitat patchiness and connectivity on the spatial ecology of the root vole (Microtus oeconomus). Journal of Animal Ecology 67:127-141. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N., Stenseth, N. C., Saitoh, T. and Lingjære, O. C. (1998) Mapping regional transitions in dynamics of Clethrionomys rufocanus: spectral densities and functional analysis. Researches on Population Ecology 40:77-84. [abstract] [preprint 0.2Mb][reprint 7.2Mb]
Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Saitoh, T. (1998) Seasonal Forcing on the Dynamics of Clethrionomys rufocanus: Modeling the Geographic Gradient in Population Dynamics. Researches on Population Ecology 40:85-95. [abstract] [preprint 0.2Mb][reprint 9Mb] [commentary]
Saitoh, T., Stenseth, N. C. and Bjørnstad, O. N. The Population Dynamics of the Grey-sided Vole in Hokkaido, Japan. Researches on Population Ecology 40:61-76. [abstract] [preprint 0.3Mb] [reprint 13Mb] [commentary]
Kaneko, Y., Nakata, K., Saitoh, T., Stenseth, N. C. and Bjørnstad, O. N. (1998) The biology of the grey-sided vole: a review. Researches on Population Ecology 40:21-37. [abstract] [pdf]
Framstad, E., Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (1997) Limit cycles in Norwegian Lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 264:31-38. [abstract] [pdf 1.5Mb] [economy pdf 0.4Mb]
Saitoh, T., Stenseth, N. C. and Bjørnstad, O.N. (1997) Density dependence in fluctuating grey-sided vole populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 66:14-24. [abstract] [pdf 1.8Mb] [economy pdf 0.5Mb]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Champely, S., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh, T. (1996) Cyclicity and stability of grey-sided voles, Clethrionomys rufocanus, of Hokkaido: spectral and Principal components analyses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London Series B 351:867-875. [abstract] [pdf 1.5Mb] [economy pdf 0.4Mb]
Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (1996) Is spacing behaviour coupled with predation causing the microtine density cycle? A synthesis of current process-oriented and pattern-oriented studies. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 263:1423-1435. [abstract] [pdf]
Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Saitoh, T. (1996) A gradient from stable to cyclic populations of Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 263:1117-1126. [abstract] [pdf 1.7Mb] [economy pdf 0.5Mb] [commentary]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) A geographic gradient in small rodent density fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:127-133. [abstract] [pdf 1.3Mb] [economy pdf 0.4Mb]
Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Bootstrap estimated uncertainty of the dominant Lyapunov exponent for Holarctic microtine rodents. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 261:159-165. [abstract] [pdf 1.2Mb] [economy 0.4Mb]
Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Voles and lemmings - chaos and uncertainty in fluctuating populations. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:363-370. [abstract] [pdf 1.5Mb][economy 0.4Mb] [commentary]
INSECT DYNAMICS
Tobin, P.C., Robinet, C., Johnson, D.M., Whitmire, S.L., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2009. The role of Allee effects in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), invasions. Population Ecology 51: 373-384. [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Liebhold, A.M. and Johnson, D.M. 2008. Transient synchronization following invasion: revisiting Moran’s model and a case study. Population Ecology 50: 379-389. [pdf]
Yamanaka, T., Tanaka, K,, Hamasaki, K., Nakatani, Y., Iwasaki, N., Sprague, D.S. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2009. Evaluating the relative importance of patch quality and connectivity in a damselfly metapopulation from a one-season survey. Oikos 118:67-76. [pdf]
Yamanaka, T., Tanaka, K. Otuka, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2007. Detecting spatial structures and interactions in the ragweed (Ambrosia artemissifolia L.) and the ragweed beetle (Ophraella communa LeSage) populations. [abstract][pdf]
Tobin, P.C., Whitmire, S., Johnson, D.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2007. Invasion speed is affected by geographic variation in the strength of Allee effects. Ecology Letters 10:36-43. [abstract] [pdf]
Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Tobin, P.C and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Allee effects and pulsed invasion by the gypsy moth. Nature 444: 361-363. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]
Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Geographical variation in the periodicity of gypsy moth outbreaks. Ecography 29:367-374. [abstract] [pdf]
Liebhold, A.M, Johnson, D.M. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity. Population Ecology 48:131-138. [abstract][pdf]
Johnson, D.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2006. Landscape mosaic induces traveling waves of insect outbreaks. Oecologia 148: 51-60. [abstract] [pdf]
Økland, B., and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. A resource depletion model of forest insect outbreaks. Ecology 87: 283-290. [abstract] [pdf]
Tobin, P.C. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Roles of dispersal, stochasticity, and nonlinear dynamics in the spatial structuring of seasonal natural enemy-victim populations. Population Ecology 47:221-227. [abstract] [pdf]
Økland, B., Liebhold, A.M, Bjørnstad, O.N., Erbilgin, N. and Krokene, P. 2005. Are bark beetle outbreaks less synchronous than forest Lepidoptera outbreaks? Oecologia 146:365-372. [abstract] [pdf]
Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and McManus, M.L. 2005. Circumpolar variation in periodicity and synchrony among gypsy moth populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 74:882-892 [abstract] [pdf]
Satake, A., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Kobro. S. 2004. Masting and trophic cascades: interplay between rowan trees, apple fruit moth, and their parasitoid in southern Norway. Oikos 104: 540-550. [abstract] [pdf]
Satake, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2004. Spatial dynamics of seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants. American Naturalist 163: 591-605. [abstract] [pdf]
Økland, B. and Bjørnstad, O. N. (2003) Synchrony and geographical variation of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) during a non-epidemic period. Population Ecology 45: 213-219 [abstract] [pdf].
Bjørnstad, O.N., Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M. & Baltensweiler, W. (2002) Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European alps. Science 298: 1020-1023. [abstract & pdf] [full-text (html)] [mirrored abstract] [mirrored pdf] [supplement] [commentary]
Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Williams, D.W. (2002) Variation in spatial synchrony among forest insect species: roles of regional stochasticity and dispersal. Ecology 83: 3120-3129 [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N. & Bascompte, J. (2001) Synchrony and second order spatial correlation in host-parasitoid systems. Journal of Animal Ecology 70: 924-933. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. (2001) The impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature 401: 1001-1006. [abstract] [pdf] [Supplement] [Splus code] [Commentary]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Sait, S. M. and Thompson, D. J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology 67:110-126. [abstract] [pdf]
FISH DYNAMICS
Bjørnstad, O. N., Nisbet, R. M. and Fromentin, J.-M. 2004. Trends and cohort resonant effects in age-structured populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 73: 1157-1167 [abstract] [pdf] [mathematica supplement]
Fromentin, J.-M., Bjørnstad, O.N., Stenseth, N.C. and Gjøsæter, J. (2002) Dynamics of the Norwegian Skagerrak cod: intuition vs inference. Marine Ecological Progress Series 241: 231-234. [pdf] [commentary]
Fromentin, J.-M., Myers, R. A., Bjørnstad, O. N., Stenseth, N. C., Gjøsæter, J. & Christie, H. (2001) Population regulation in cod along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Ecology 82: 567-579. [abstract] [pdf]
Fromentin, J.-M., Gjøsæter, J., Bjørnstad, O. N. & Stenseth, N. C. (2000) Biological processes and environmental factors regulating the temporal dynamics of the Norwegian Skagerrak cod since 1919. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 330-338. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N.C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) A new test for density-dependent survival: the case of coastal cod populations Ecology 80:1278-1288. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) Cycles and trends in cod population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 96:5066-5071. [abstract] [pdf]
Frometin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C., Gjøsæter, J., Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W. and Johannesen, T. (1997) Spatial patterns of the temporal dynamics of three Gadoid species along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Marine Ecological Progress Series 155:209-222. [abstract] [pdf]
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Ferrari, M.J., Grais, R.F., Conlan, A.J.K., Bharti, N., Bjornstad, O.N., Wolfson, L.J., Guerin, P.J., Djibo, A. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Seasonality, stochasticity and the dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-684. [abstract][pdf][supplement]
Ferrari, M. J. Bjørnstad, O. N. and Dobson, A.P. 2005. Estimation and inference for R0 of an infectious pathogen using a removal method. Mathematical Bioscience 198: 14-26. [abstract][pdf]
Xia, Y., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for pre-vaccination epidemiological coupling and dynamics. American Naturalist 164: 267-281. [abstract] [pdf] [news@nature.com]
Clark, J. S. and Bjørnstad, O. N. 2004. Population inference from messy data: errors, missing and hidden states, and lagged responses. Ecology 85: 3140–3150. [abstract] [pdf] [appendix]
Satake, A., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Kobro. S. 2004. Masting and trophic cascades: interplay between rowan trees, apple fruit moth, and their parasitoid in southern Norway. Oikos 104: 540-550. [abstract] [pdf]
Rees, M., Kelly, D. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2002) Snow tussocks, chaos and the evolution of mast seeding. American Naturalist 160: 44-59. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Estimating epidemiological scaling with a time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 169-184. [abstract] [pdf] [download data]
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Finkenstädt, B. & (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Scaling predictability, noise and determinism with the time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 185-202. [abstract] [pdf] [download data]
Finkenstädt, B., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics: estimation and inference for measles outbreaks. Biostatistics 3: 493-510. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N. & Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Noisy clockwork: time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science 293: 638-643. [abstract & pdf] [full-text (html)] [Supplement] [mirrored pdf] [mirrored supplement]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. (2001) The impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature 401: 1001-1006. [abstract] [pdf] [Supplement] [Splus code] [Commentary]
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414: 716-723. [abstract] [pdf] [quicktime movie] [supplement] [Commentary]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N.C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) A new test for density-dependent survival: the case of coastal cod populations Ecology 80:1278-1288. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O. N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) Cycles and trends in cod population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 96:5066-5071. [abstract] [pdf]
Saitoh, T., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1999) Density-dependence in voles and mice: a comparative analysis. Ecology 80:638-650. [abstract] [pdf]
Stenseth, N.C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W., Fromentin, J.-M., Gjøsæter, J., and Gray, J.S. (1999) Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and inter-cohort density-dependence and stochastic processes. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B 266:1645-1654. [abstract] [pdf]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Sait, S. M. and Thompson, D. J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology 67:110-126. [abstract] [pdf]
Saitoh, T., Stenseth, N. C. and Bjørnstad, O. N. The Population Dynamics of the Grey-sided Vole in Hokkaido, Japan. Researches on Population Ecology 40:61-76. [abstract] [preprint 0.3Mb] [reprint 13Mb] [commentary]
Kendall, B. E., Prendergast, J. and Bjørnstad, O. N. (1998) The macroecology of population dynamics: animal population cycles in the Northern hemisphere. Ecology Letters 1:160-164. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement].
Stenseth, N.C., Falck, W., Chan, K.-C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Tong, H., O'Donoghue, M., Boonstra, R., Boutin, S., Krebs, C. J. and Yoccoz, N. G. (1998) From pattern to process: phase- and density-dependence in the canadian lynx cycle. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 95:15430-15435. [abstract] [pdf]
Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Krebs, C. J. (1997) Population regulation in snowshoe hare and lynx populations: asymmetric food web configurations between the snowshoe hare and the lynx. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 94:5147-5152. [abstract] [pdf]
Framstad, E., Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (1997) Limit cycles in Norwegian Lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 264:31-38. [abstract] [pdf 1.5Mb] [economy pdf 0.4Mb]
Saitoh, T., Stenseth, N. C. and Bjørnstad, O.N. (1997) Density dependence in fluctuating grey-sided vole populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 66:14-24. [abstract] [pdf 1.8Mb] [economy pdf 0.5Mb]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Champely, S., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh, T. (1996) Cyclicity and stability of grey-sided voles, Clethrionomys rufocanus, of Hokkaido: spectral and Principal components analyses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London Series B 351:867-875. [abstract] [pdf 1.5Mb] [economy pdf 0.4Mb]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) A geographic gradient in small rodent density fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:127-133. [abstract] [pdf 1.3Mb] [economy pdf 0.4Mb]
Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Bootstrap estimated uncertainty of the dominant Lyapunov exponent for Holarctic microtine rodents. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 261:159-165. [abstract] [pdf 1.2Mb] [economy 0.4Mb]
Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Voles and lemmings - chaos and uncertainty in fluctuating populations. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:363-370. [abstract] [pdf 1.5Mb][economy 0.4Mb] [commentary]
SPATIAL STATISTICS
Bjørnstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15: 265-277. [pdf]
Humston, R., Mortensen, D. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Anthropogenic forcing on the spatial dynamics of an agricultural weed: the case of the common sunflower. Journal of Applied Ecology 42: 863-872. [abstract] [pdf]
Seabloom, E.W., Bjørnstad, O.N., Bolker, B.M. and Reichman, O.J. 2005. The spatial signature of environmental heterogeneity, dispersal, and competition in successional grasslands. Ecological Monographs 75: 199-214. [abstract][pdf]
Liebhold, A., Walter, D. K. and Bjørnstad, O. N. 2004. Spatial synchrony in population dynamics. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 35: 467-490. [abstract] [pdf] [supplemental movie]
Bjørnstad, O.N., Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M. & Baltensweiler, W. (2002) Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European alps. Science 298: 1020-1023. [abstract & pdf] [full-text (html)] [mirrored abstract] [mirrored pdf] [supplement] [commentary]
Bjørnstad, O. N. and Falck, W. (2001) Spatial covariance functions: estimation and testing. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 8: 53-70. [abstract] [pdf] [Splus code]
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414: 716-723. [abstract] [pdf] [quicktime movie] [supplement] [Commentary]
