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Publications

POPULATION CYCLES

Nelson, W.A., Bjornstad, O.N. and Yamanaka, T. 2013. Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability.  Science 341: 796-799. [pdf][supplement]

Lavine, J., King, A.A., Andreassen, V. and Bjornstad, O.N. 2013. Immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics. PLoS ONE 8(8): e72086. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072086. [pdf][supplement]

Yamanaka, T., Nelson, W.A., Uchimura, K. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2012. Generation separation in simple structured life-cycles: models and 48 years of field data on a tea tortrix moth. American Naturalist 179: 95-109. [pdf][supplement]

Lavine, J., King, A.A. and Bjornstad, O.N. 2011. Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 108: 7259-7264. [pdf][supplement]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Robinet, C. and Liebhold, A.M. 2010. Geographic variation in north american gypsy moth cycles: subharmonics, generalist predators and spatial coupling. Ecology 91:106-118. [pdf]

King, A.A., Shrestha, S., Harvill, E.T. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2009 Evolution of acute infections and the invasion-persistence trade-off. American Naturalist 173:446-455 [pdf]

Ferrari, M.J., Grais, R.F., Conlan, A.J.K., Bharti, N., Bjornstad, O.N., Wolfson, L.J., Guerin, P.J., Djibo, A. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Seasonality, stochasticity and the dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-684. [abstract][pdf][supplement]184-publication stock pic

Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Tobin, P.C and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Allee effects and pulsed invasion by the gypsy moth. Nature 444: 361-363. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]

Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Geographical variation in the periodicity of gypsy moth outbreaks. Ecography 29:367-374. [abstract] [pdf]

Johnson, D.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2006. Landscape mosaic induces traveling waves of insect outbreaks. Oecologia 148: 51-60. [abstract] [pdf]

Økland, B., and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. A resource depletion model of forest insect outbreaks. Ecology 87: 283-290. [abstract] [pdf]

Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and McManus, M.L. 2005. Circumpolar variation in periodicity and synchrony among gypsy moth populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 74:882-892 [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N., Nisbet, R. M. and Fromentin, J.-M. 2004. Trends and cohort resonant effects in age-structured populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 73: 1157-1167 [abstract] [pdf] [mathematica supplement]

Johnson, D. M., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Liebhold, A. M. 2004. Landscape geometry and traveling waves in the larch budmoth. Ecology Letters 7: 967-974. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]

Xia, Y., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for pre-vaccination epidemiological coupling and dynamics. American Naturalist 164: 267-281. [abstract] [pdf]

Hudson, P.J. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2003) Vole stranglers and lemmings cycles. Science 302: 797-798. [pdf] [Gilg et al].

Bjørnstad, O.N., Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M. & Baltensweiler, W. (2002) Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European alps. Science 298: 1020-1023. [abstract & pdf] [full-text (html)] [mirrored abstract] [mirrored pdf] [commentary]

Bjørnstad, O.N. & Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Noisy clockwork: time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science 293: 638-643. [pdf] [supplement]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. (2001) The impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature 401: 1001-1006.  [abstract] [pdf] [Supplement] [Splus code] [Commentary]

Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414: 716-723. [abstract] [pdf]  [supplement]  [Commentary]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Estimating epidemiological scaling with a time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 169-184.  [abstract] [pdf] [Download data

Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Finkenstädt, B. &  (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Scaling predictability, noise and determinism with the time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 185-202.  [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N. (2000) Cycles and synchrony: two historical ‘experiments’ and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 869-873. [abstract] [pdf] [erratum]

Childs, J.E. , Curns, A., Dey, M., Real, L.A. , Feinstein, L., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Krebs, J.W. (2000) Predicting the local dynamics of epizootic rabies among raccoons in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 97: 13666–13671 [abstract] [pdf] [Commentary]

Bjørnstad, O. N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) Cycles and trends in cod population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 96:5066-5071. [abstract] [pdf]

Stenseth, N.C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W., Fromentin, J.-M., Gjøsæter, J., and Gray, J.S. (1999) Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and inter-cohort density-dependence and stochastic processes. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B 266:1645-1654. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Sait, S. M. and Thompson, D. J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology 67:110-126. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N., Stenseth, N. C., Saitoh, T. and Lingjære, O. C. (1998) Mapping regional transitions in dynamics of Clethrionomys rufocanus: spectral densities and functional analysis. Researches on Population Ecology 40:77-84. [abstract] [reprint]

Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Saitoh, T. (1998) Seasonal Forcing on the Dynamics of Clethrionomys rufocanus: Modeling the Geographic Gradient in Population Dynamics. Researches on Population Ecology 40:85-95. [abstract] [reprint] [commentary]

Kendall, B. E., Prendergast, J. and Bjørnstad, O. N. (1998) The macroecology of population dynamics: animal population cycles in the Northern hemisphere. Ecology Letters 1:160-164. [abstract] [pdf].

Stenseth, N.C., Falck, W., Chan, K.-C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Tong, H., O'Donoghue, M., Boonstra, R., Boutin, S., Krebs, C. J. and Yoccoz, N. G. (1998) From pattern to process: phase- and density-dependence in the canadian lynx cycle. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 95:15430-15435. [abstract] [pdf]

Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Krebs, C. J. (1997) Population regulation in snowshoe hare and lynx populations: asymmetric food web configurations between the snowshoe hare and the lynx. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 94:5147-5152. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Champely, S., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh, T. (1996) Cyclicity and stability of grey-sided voles, Clethrionomys rufocanus, of Hokkaido: spectral and Principal components analyses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London Series B 351:867-875. [abstract] [pdf

Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (1996) Is spacing behaviour coupled with predation causing the microtine density cycle? A synthesis of current process-oriented and pattern-oriented studies. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 263:1423-1435. [abstract] [pdf]

Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Saitoh, T. (1996) A gradient from stable to cyclic populations of Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 263:1117-1126. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) A geographic gradient in small rodent density fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:127-133. [abstract] [pdf


Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Bootstrap estimated uncertainty of the dominant Lyapunov exponent for Holarctic microtine rodents. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 261:159-165. [abstract] [pdf

Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Voles and lemmings - chaos and uncertainty in fluctuating populations. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:363-370. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

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SPATIAL DYNAMICS

Metcalf, C.J.E, Hampson, K., Tatem, A., Klepac, P., Grenfell, B.T. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2013. Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. PLoS ONE 8(9): e74696. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0074696 [pdf]

Haynes, K.J., Bjørn    stad, O.N., Allstadt, A. and Liebhold, A.M. 2013. Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect: isolation of environmental and spatial drivers. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 280 no: 20122373. doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.2373. [pdf]

Rauschert, E.S.J., Shea, K. and Bjornstad, O.N. 2012. Coexistence patterns of two invasive thistle species, Carduus nutans and C. acanthoides, at three spatial scales. Biological Invasions 14: 151-164. [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Robinet, C. and Liebhold, A.M. 2010. Geographic variation in north american gypsy moth cycles: subharmonics, generalist predators and spatial coupling. Ecology 91:106-118. [pdf]

Rauschert, E.S.J., Mortensen, D.A., Bjørnstad, O.N., Nord, A. and Peskin, N. 2010. Slow spread of the aggressive invader, Microstegium vimineum (Japanese stiltgrass). Biological Invasions 12: 563-579. [pdf]


Tobin, P.C., Robinet, C., Johnson, D.M., Whitmire, S.L., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2009. The role of Allee effects in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), invasions. Population Ecology 51: 373-384. [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Liebhold, A.M. and Johnson, D.M. 2008. Transient synchronization following invasion: revisiting Moran’s model and a case study. Population Ecology 50: 379-389. [pdf]

Yamanaka, T., Tanaka, K,, Hamasaki, K., Nakatani, Y., Iwasaki, N., Sprague, D.S. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2009. Evaluating the relative importance of patch quality and connectivity in a damselfly metapopulation from a one-season survey. Oikos 118:67-76. [pdf]

Bharti, N., Xia, Y., Bjornstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics. PLoS ONE 3(4): e1941 [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15: 265-277. [pdf]

Satake, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2008. A resource budget model to explain intraspecific variation in mast reproductive dynamics. Ecological research 23: 3-10. [abstract][pdf]

Yamanaka, T., Tanaka, K. Otuka, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2007. Detecting spatial structures and interactions in the ragweed (Ambrosia artemissifolia L.) and the ragweed beetle (Ophraella communa LeSage) populations. [abstract][pdf]

Tobin, P.C., Whitmire, S., Johnson, D.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2007. Invasion speed is affected by geographic variation in the strength of Allee effects. Ecology Letters 10:36-43. [abstract] [pdf]

Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Tobin, P.C and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Allee effects and pulsed invasion by the gypsy moth. Nature 444: 361-363. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]

Ferrari, M., Bjørnstad, O.N., Partain, J. and Antonovics, J. 2006. A gravity model for the spread of a pollinator-borne plant pathogen. American Naturalist 168: 294-303. [abstract] [pdf]

Viboud, C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Smith, D.L., Simonsen, L., Miller, M.A. and Grenfell, B.T. 2006. Synchrony, waves and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312: 447-451. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement] [comment]

Liebhold, A.M, Johnson, D.M. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity. Population Ecology 48:131-138. [abstract][pdf]

Johnson, D.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2006. Landscape mosaic induces traveling waves of insect outbreaks. Oecologia 148: 51-60. [abstract] [pdf]

Tobin, P.C. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Roles of dispersal, stochasticity, and nonlinear dynamics in the spatial structuring of seasonal natural enemy-victim populations. Population Ecology 47:221-227. [abstract] [pdf]

Økland, B., Liebhold, A.M, Bjørnstad, O.N., Erbilgin, N. and Krokene, P. 2005. Are bark beetle outbreaks less synchronous than forest Lepidoptera outbreaks? Oecologia 146:365-372. [abstract] [pdf]

Humston, R., Mortensen, D. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Anthropogenic forcing on the spatial dynamics of an agricultural weed: the case of the common sunflower. Journal of Applied Ecology 42: 863-872. [abstract] [pdf]

Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and McManus, M.L. 2005. Circumpolar variation in periodicity and synchrony among gypsy moth populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 74:882-892 [abstract] [pdf]

Seabloom, E.W., Bjørnstad, O.N., Bolker, B.M. and Reichman, O.J. 2005. The spatial signature of environmental heterogeneity, dispersal, and competition in successional grasslands. Ecological Monographs 75: 199-214. [abstract][pdf]

Zhou, G., Sirichaisinthop, J., Sattabongkot, J., Jones, J., Bjørnstad, O. N., Yan, G. and Cui, L. 2005. Spatio-temporal distribution of falciparum and vivax malaria in Thailand. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 72: 256-262. [abstract] [pdf]

Johnson, D. M., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Liebhold, A. M. 2004. Landscape geometry and traveling waves in the larch budmoth. Ecology Letters 7: 967-974. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]

Liebhold, A., Walter, D. K. and Bjørnstad, O. N. 2004. Spatial synchrony in population dynamics. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 35: 467-490.  [abstract] [pdf]

Xia, Y., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for pre-vaccination epidemiological coupling and dynamics. American Naturalist 164: 267-281. [abstract] [pdf]

Keeling, M. J., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases. pp. 415-445 in I. Hanski, and O. Gaggiotti, eds., Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution of Metapopulations [preprint]

Satake, A., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Kobro. S. 2004. Masting and trophic cascades: interplay between rowan trees, apple fruit moth, and their parasitoid in southern Norway. Oikos 104: 540-550. [abstract] [pdf]

Satake, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2004. Spatial dynamics of seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants. American Naturalist 163: 591-605. [abstract] [pdf]

Økland, B. and Bjørnstad, O. N. (2003) Synchrony and geographical variation of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) during a non-epidemic period. Population Ecology 45: 213-219 [abstract] [pdf].

Liebhold, A., Sork, V., Peltonen, M., Koenig, W., Bjørnstad, O.N., Westfall, R., Elkinton, J., & Knops, J.M.H. 2004. Within-population spatial synchrony in mast seeding of North American oaks. Oikos 104: 156-164. [abstract][pdf]

Tobin, P. C.  & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2003) Spatial dynamics and cross-correlation in a transient predator-prey system, Journal of Animal Ecology 72: 460-467. [abstract][pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M. & Baltensweiler, W. (2002) Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European alps. Science 298: 1020-1023. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

Rees, M., Kelly, D. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2002) Snow tussocks, chaos and the evolution of mast seeding. American Naturalist 160: 44-59. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Williams, D.W. (2002) Variation in spatial synchrony among forest insect species: roles of regional stochasticity and dispersal. Ecology 83: 3120-3129 [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N. & Bascompte, J. (2001) Synchrony and second order spatial correlation in host-parasitoid systems. Journal of Animal Ecology 70: 924-933. [abstract] [pdf]

Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414: 716-723. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement] [Commentary]

Bjørnstad, O.N. and Bolker, B. (2000) Canonical functions for dispersal-induced synchrony.  Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 267: 1787-1794.[abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N. (2000) Cycles and synchrony: two historical ‘experiments’ and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 869-873. [abstract] [pdf] [erratum]

Kendall, B. E., Bjørnstad, O. N., Bascompte, J., Keitt, T.H. and Fagan, W. (2000) Ecological interactions, environmental correlation and spatial synchrony. American Naturalist 155: 628-636.  [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N., Ims, R. A. and Lambin, X. (1999) Spatial population dynamics: Causes and consequences of spatial synchrony in density fluctuations. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 14:427-431. [abstract]  [pdf] [Splus code]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh,T. (1999) Synchrony and scaling in dynamics of voles and mice in northern Japan. Ecology 80:622-637. [abstract] [pdf] [Splus code]

Framstad, E., Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (1997) Limit cycles in Norwegian Lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 264:31-38. [abstract] [pdf]

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AGE-/STAGE- STRUCTURE

Nelson, W.A., Bjornstad, O.N. and Yamanaka, T. 2013. Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability.  Science 341: 796-799. [pdf][supplement]

Metcalf, C.J.E, Lessler, J., Klepac, P., Morice, A., Grenfell, B.T.  and Bjørnstad, O.N.  2012. Structured models of infectious disease: inference with discrete data. Theoretical Population Biology 82: 275-282. [pdf]

Lavine, J., Bjornstad, O.N., Freiesleben de Blasio, B., and Storsaeter, J. 2012. Short-lived immunity against pertussis, age-specific routes of transmission, and the utility of a teenage booster vaccine. Vaccine 30: 544-551. [pdf][supplement]

Yamanaka, T., Nelson, W.A., Uchimura, K. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2012. Generation separation in simple structured life-cycles: models and 48 years of field data on a tea tortrix moth. American Naturalist 179: 95-109. [pdf][supplement]

Ferrari, M.J., Djibo, A., Grais, R.F., Grenfell, B.T. and Bjornstad, O.N. 2010. Episodic outbreaks bias estimates of age-specific force of infection: a corrected method using measles as an example. Epidemiology and Infection 138: 108-116. [pdf][supplement]

Klepac, P., Pomeroy, L.W., Bjørnstad, O.N., Kuiken, T., Osterhaus, A.D.M.E. and Rijks, J.M. 2009. Stage-Structured Transmission of Phocine Distemper Virus in the Dutch 2002 Outbreak. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 276: 2469 - 2476. [pdf]


Cornell, S.J., Bjornstad, O.N., Cattadori, I.M., Boag, B. and Hudson, P.J.  2008. Seasonality, cohort-dependence and the development of immunity in a natural host-nematode system. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 275: 511-518. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]

Cattadori, I.M., Boag, B., Bjørnstad, O.N., Cornell, S.J. and Hudson, P.J. 2005. Peak shift and epidemiology in a seasonal host-nematode system. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 272: 1163-1169. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N., Nisbet, R. M. and Fromentin, J.-M. 2004. Trends and cohort resonant effects in age-structured populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 73: 1157-1167 [abstract] [pdf] [mathematica supplement]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. (2001) The impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature 401: 1001-1006.  [abstract] [pdf] [Supplement] [Splus code] [Commentary]

Fromentin, J.-M., Myers, R. A., Bjørnstad, O. N., Stenseth, N. C., Gjøsæter, J. & Christie, H. (2001) Population regulation in cod along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Ecology 82: 567-579. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N.C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) A new test for density-dependent survival: the case of coastal cod populations Ecology 80:1278-1288. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) Cycles and trends in cod population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 96:5066-5071. [abstract] [pdf]

Stenseth, N.C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W., Fromentin, J.-M., Gjøsæter, J., and Gray, J.S. (1999) Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and inter-cohort density-dependence and stochastic processes. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B 266:1645-1654. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Sait, S. M. and Thompson, D. J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology 67:110-126. [abstract] [pdf]

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INFECTIOUS DISEASE

Metcalf, C.J.E, Hampson, K., Tatem, A., Klepac, P., Grenfell, B.T. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2013. Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. PLoS ONE 8(9): e74696. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0074696 [pdf]

Lavine, J., King, A.A., Andreassen, V. and Bjornstad, O.N. 2013. Immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics. PLoS ONE 8(8): e72086. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072086. [pdf][supplement]

Metcalf, C.J.E, Lessler, J., Cohen, C., McAnerney, J., Ntshoe, G., Puren, A., Tatem, A., Klepac, P., Grenfell, B.T.  and Bjørnstad, O.N.  2012. Implications of spatially heterogeneous vaccination coverage for the risk of Congenital Rubella Syndrome in South Africa. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 10: doi: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0756 [pdf]

Klepac, P., Bjørnstad, O.N., Metcalf, C.J.E and Grenfell, B.T.  2012. Optimizing reactive responses to outbreaks of immunizing infections: balancing case management and vaccination. PLoS ONE 7(8): e41428. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0041428 [pdf]

Metcalf, C.J.E, Long, G.H., Mideo, N., Forester, J.D., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Graham, A.L. 2012. Revealing mechanisms underlying variation in malaria virulence: effective propagation and host control of uninfected red blood cell supply. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 9: 2804-2813. [pdf]

Metcalf, C.J.E, Lessler, J., Klepac, P., Morice, A., Grenfell, B.T.  and Bjørnstad, O.N.  2012. Structured models of infectious disease: inference with discrete data. Theoretical Population Biology 82: 275-282. [pdf]

Luis, A.D., Douglass, R.J., Hudson, P.J., Mills, J.N. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2012. Sin nombre hantavirus decreases survival of male deer mice. Oecologia 169: 431-439. [pdf]

Lavine, J., Bjornstad, O.N., Freiesleben de Blasio, B., and Storsaeter, J. 2012. Short-lived immunity against pertussis, age-specific routes of transmission, and the utility of a teenage booster vaccine. Vaccine 30: 544-551. [pdf][supplement]

Metcalf, C.J.E., Graham, A.L., Huijben, S., Barclay, V.C., Long, G.H., Grenfell, B.T., Read, A.F. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2011. Partitioning regulatory mechanisms of within-host malaria dynamics using the effective propagation number. Science 333: 984-988. [pdf][supplement]

Ferrari, M.J., Perkins, S., Pomeroy, L., and Bjornstad, O.N. 2011. Pathogens, social networks and the paradox of transmission scaling. 2011. Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases vol. 2011, Article ID 267049. [pdf]

Lavine, J., King, A.A. and Bjornstad, O.N. 2011. Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 108: 7259-7264. [pdf][supplement]

Metcalf, C.J.E, Bjornstad, O.N., Ferrari, M., Klepac, P., Bharti, N., Lopez-Gatell, H. and Grenfell, B.T. 2011. The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation. Epidemiology and Infection 139: 1029–1038. [pdf]

Metcalf, C.J.E, Munayco, C.V., Chowell, G., Grenfell, B.T. and Bjornstad, O.N. 2011. Rubella meta-population dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of Congenital Rubella Syndrome in Peru. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 8:369-376. [pdf]

Long, G.H, Sinha, D., Read, A.F., Pritt, S., Kline, B., Harvill, E.T., Hudson, P.J and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2010. Identifying the Age Cohort responsible for Bordetella bronchiseptica Transmission in a Natural Rabbit Outbreak. PLoS Pathogens 6(12): e1001224. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1001224. [pdf][supplement]

Lavine, J., Broutin, H., Harvill, E.T. and Bjornstad, O.N. 2010. Imperfect vaccine-induced immunity and whooping cough transmission to infants. Vaccine 29:11-16. [pdf]

Ferrari, M.J., Djibo, A., Grais, R.F., Bharti, N., Grenfell, B.T. and Bjornstad, O.N. 2010. Rural-urban gradient in seasonal forcing of measles transmission in Niger. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 277: 2775-2782. [pdf]

Bharti, N., Djibo, A., Ferrari, M.J., Grais, R.F., Tatem, A.J., McCabe, C.A., Bjornstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2010. Measles hotspots and epidemiological connectivity in Niger. Epidemiology and Infection 138: 1308-1316. [pdf]

Luis, A.D., Douglass, R.J., Mills, J.N. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2010. The effect of seasonality, density and climate on the population dynamics of Montana deer mice, important reservoir hosts for Sin Nombre hantavirus. Journal of Animal Ecology 79: 462­470. [pdf]

Mantilla-Beniers, N.B., Bjornstad, O.N. Grenfell, B.T. and Rohani, P. 2010. Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 7:727-739. [pdf]

Ferrari, M.J., Djibo, A., Grais, R.F., Grenfell, B.T. and Bjornstad, O.N. 2010. Episodic outbreaks bias estimates of age-specific force of infection: a corrected method using measles as an example. Epidemiology and Infection 138: 108-116. [pdf][supplement]

Roy, S., Lavine, J., Chiaromonte, F., Terwee, J., VandeWoude, S., Bjornstad, O. and Poss, M. 2009. Multivariate statistical analyses demonstrate unique host immune responses to single and dual lentiviral infection. PLoS ONE 4(10): e7359. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0007359. [pdf]

Metcalf, C.J.E, Bjornstad, O.N., Grenfell, B.T. and Andreasen, V. 2009. Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series 276:4111-4118. [pdf]

Klepac, P., Pomeroy, L.W., Bjørnstad, O.N., Kuiken, T., Osterhaus, A.D.M.E. and Rijks, J.M. 2009. Stage-Structured Transmission of Phocine Distemper Virus in the Dutch 2002 Outbreak. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 276: 2469 - 2476. [pdf]


King, A.A., Shrestha, S., Harvill, E.T. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2009 Evolution of acute infections and the invasion-persistence trade-off. American Naturalist 173:446-455 [pdf]

Bharti, N., Xia, Y., Bjornstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics. PLoS ONE 3(4): e1941 [pdf]

Restif, O., Wolfe, D.N., Goebel, E.M., Bjornstad, O.N., and Harvill, E.T. 2008. Of mice and men: asymmetric interactions between Bordetella pathogen species. Parasitology 135:1517-1529. [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15: 265-277. [pdf]

Cornell, S.J., Bjornstad, O.N., Cattadori, I.M., Boag, B. and Hudson, P.J.  2008. Seasonality, cohort-dependence and the development of immunity in a natural host-nematode system. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 275: 511-518. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]

Ferrari, M.J., Grais, R.F., Conlan, A.J.K., Bharti, N., Bjornstad, O.N., Wolfson, L.J., Guerin, P.J., Djibo, A. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Seasonality, stochasticity and the dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-684. [abstract][pdf][supplement]

Pomeroy, L.W., Bjornstad, O.N. and Holmes, E.C. 2008. The evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the Paramyxoviridae. Journal of Molecular Evolution 66:98-106 [abstract][pdf]

Grais, R.F., Conlan, A.J.K., Ferrari, M.J., Djibo, A., Le Menach, A., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T., 2008. Time is of the essence: Exploring a measles outbreak response vaccination in Niamey, Niger. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 5:67-74. [abstract][pdf]

Wolfe, D.N., Goebel, E.M., Bjornstad, O.N., Restif, O. and Harvill, E.T. 2007. O-antigen enables Bordetella parapertussis to avoid Bordetella pertussis-Induced Immunity. Infection and Immunity 75: 4972-4979. [abstract][pdf]

Graham, A.L., Cattadori, I.M., Lloyd-Smith, J.O, Ferrari, M.J. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2007. Transmission consequences of coinfection: cytokines writ large? Trends in Parasitology 23: 284-291. [abstract] [pdf]

Viboud, C., Miller, M.A., Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Simonsen, L. 2006. Air Travel and the Spread of Influenza: Important Caveats. PloS Medicine 3: 2159-2960. [abstract] [pdf]

Ferrari, M., Bjørnstad, O.N., Partain, J. and Antonovics, J. 2006. A gravity model for the spread of a pollinator-borne plant pathogen. American Naturalist 168: 294-303. [abstract] [pdf]

Grais, R.F., Ferrari, M.J., Dubraya, C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Grenfell, B.T., Djiboc, A., Fermond, F. and Guerina, P. J. 2006. Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 100: 867-873. [abstract] [pdf]

Ferrari, M.J., Bansal, S., Myers, L.A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Network frailty and the geometry of herd immunity. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 273:2743-2748. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement] [movie]

Viboud, C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Smith, D.L., Simonsen, L., Miller, M.A. and Grenfell, B.T. 2006. Synchrony, waves and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312: 447-451. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement] [comment]

Grenfell, B.T., Williams, C.S., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Banavar, J.R. 2006. Simplifying biological complexity. Nature Physics 2: 212-214. [abstract][pdf]

Kirimanjeswara, G.S., Agosto, L.M., Kennett, M.J., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Harvill, E.T. 2005. Pertussis toxin inhibits neutrophil recruitment to delay antibody-mediated clearance of Bordetella pertussis. Journal of Clinical Investigation 115: 3594-3601. [abstract] [pdf]

Cattadori, I.M., Boag, B., Bjørnstad, O.N., Cornell, S.J. and Hudson, P.J. 2005. Peak shift and epidemiology in a seasonal host-nematode system. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 272: 1163-1169. [abstract] [pdf]

Ferrari, M. J. Bjørnstad, O. N. and Dobson, A.P. 2005. Estimation and inference for R0 of an infectious pathogen using a removal method. Mathematical Bioscience 198: 14-26. [abstract][pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N. and Harvill, E.T. 2005. Evolution and emergence of Bordetella in humans. Trends in Microbiology 13: 355-359 [abstract][pdf preprint]

Grenfell, B.T. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Sexually transmitted diseases: Epidemic cycling and immunity. Nature 433: 366-367. [pdf] [grassly et al]

Zhou, G., Sirichaisinthop, J., Sattabongkot, J., Jones, J., Bjørnstad, O. N., Yan, G. and Cui, L. 2005. Spatio-temporal distribution of falciparum and vivax malaria in Thailand. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 72: 256-262. [abstract] [pdf]

Xia, Y., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for pre-vaccination epidemiological coupling and dynamics. American Naturalist 164: 267-281. [abstract] [pdf]

Keeling, M. J., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases. pp. 415-445 in I. Hanski, and O. Gaggiotti, eds., Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution of Metapopulations [preprint]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Estimating epidemiological scaling with a time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 169-184.  [abstract] [pdf] [Download data

Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Finkenstädt, B. &  (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Scaling predictability, noise and determinism with the time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 185-202.  [abstract] [pdf]

Finkenstädt, B., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics: estimation and inference for measles outbreaks. Biostatistics 3: 493-510. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. (2001) The impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature 401: 1001-1006.  [abstract] [pdf] [Supplement] [Splus code] [Commentary]

Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414: 716-723. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]  [Commentary]

Wilson, K., O.N. Bjørnstad, A.P. Dobson, S. Merler, G. Poglayen, S.E. Randolph, A.F. Read, and A. Skorping (2001). Heterogeneities in macroparasite infections: patterns and processes. Pages 6-44 in P. J. Hudson, A. Rizzoli, B.T. Grenfell, H. Heesterbeek and A. P. Dobson, editors. The Ecology of Wildlife Diseases. [abstract] [preprint]

Grenfell, B.T., W. Amos, P. Arneberg, O.N. Bjørnstad, J.V. Greenman, J. Harwood, P. Lanfranchi, A. McLean, R.A. Norman, A.F. Read, and A. Skorping (2002). Visions for future research in wildlife epidemiology. Pages 151-164 in P. J. Hudson, A. Rizzoli, B.T. Grenfell, H. Heesterbeek and A. P. Dobson, editors. The Ecology of Wildlife Diseases.[abstract] [preprint]

Bjørnstad, O. N. (2000) Cycles and synchrony: two historical ‘experiments’ and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 869-873. [abstract] [pdf] [erratum]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Sait, S. M. and Thompson, D. J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology 67:110-126. [abstract] [pdf]

Childs, J.E. , Curns, A., Dey, M., Real, L.A. , Feinstein, L., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Krebs, J.W. (2000) Predicting the local dynamics of epizootic rabies among raccoons in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 97: 13666–13671 [abstract] [pdf][Commentary]

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MASTING


Satake, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2008. A resource budget model to explain intraspecific variation in mast reproductive dynamics. Ecological research 23: 3-10. [abstract][pdf]

Satake, A., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Kobro. S. 2004. Masting and trophic cascades: interplay between rowan trees, apple fruit moth, and their parasitoid in southern Norway. Oikos 104: 540-550. [abstract] [pdf]

Satake, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2004. Spatial dynamics of seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants. American Naturalist 163: 591-605. [abstract] [pdf]

Liebhold, A., Sork, V., Peltonen, M., Koenig, W., Bjørnstad, O.N., Westfall, R., Elkinton, J., & Knops, J.M.H. 2004. Within-population spatial synchrony in mast seeding of North American oaks. Oikos 104: 156-164. [abstract][pdf]

Rees, M., Kelly, D. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2002) Snow tussocks, chaos and the evolution of mast seeding. American Naturalist 160: 44-59. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

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POPULATION GENETICS


Bjørnstad, O. N. and Falck, W. (2001) Spatial covariance functions: estimation and testing. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 8: 53-70. [abstract] [pdf] [R code]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Iversen, A. and Hansen, M. (1995) The spatial structure of the gene pool of a viviparous population of Poa alpina - environmental controls and spatial constraints. Nordic Journal of Botany 15:347-354. [abstract] [pdf]

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RODENT ECOLOGY

 

Luis, A.D., Douglass, R.J., Hudson, P.J., Mills, J.N. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2012. Sin nombre hantavirus decreases survival of male deer mice. Oecologia 169: 431-439. [pdf]

Glorvigen, P., Bjørnstad, O.N., Andreassen, H.P. and Ims, R.A. 2012. Settlement in empty vs. occupied habitats: An experimental study on bank voles. Population Ecology 54: 55-63. [pdf]

Luis, A.D., Douglass, R.J., Mills, J.N. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2010. The effect of seasonality, density and climate on the population dynamics of Montana deer mice, important reservoir hosts for Sin Nombre hantavirus. Journal of Animal Ecology 79: 462­470. [pdf]

Hudson, P.J. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2003) Vole stranglers and lemmings cycles. Science 302: 797-798. [pdf] [Gilg et al].

Bjørnstad, O. N. (2000) Cycles and synchrony: two historical ‘experiments’ and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 869-873. [abstract] [pdf] [erratum]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh,T. (1999) Synchrony and scaling in dynamics of voles and mice in northern Japan. Ecology 80:622-637. [abstract] [pdf] [Splus code]

Saitoh, T., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1999) Density-dependence in voles and mice: a comparative analysis. Ecology 80:638-650. [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Andreassen, H. P. and Ims, R. A. (1998) Effects of habitat patchiness and connectivity on the spatial ecology of the root vole (Microtus oeconomus). Journal of Animal Ecology 67:127-141. [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N., Stenseth, N. C., Saitoh, T. and Lingjære, O. C. (1998) Mapping regional transitions in dynamics of Clethrionomys rufocanus: spectral densities and functional analysis. Researches on Population Ecology 40:77-84. [abstract] [reprint]

Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Saitoh, T. (1998) Seasonal Forcing on the Dynamics of Clethrionomys rufocanus: Modeling the Geographic Gradient in Population Dynamics. Researches on Population Ecology 40:85-95. [abstract] [reprint] [commentary]

Saitoh, T., Stenseth, N. C. and Bjørnstad, O. N. The Population Dynamics of the Grey-sided Vole in Hokkaido, Japan. Researches on Population Ecology 40:61-76. [pdf]

Kaneko, Y., Nakata, K., Saitoh, T., Stenseth, N. C. and Bjørnstad, O. N. (1998) The biology of the grey-sided vole: a review. Researches on Population Ecology 40:21-37. [pdf]

Framstad, E., Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (1997) Limit cycles in Norwegian Lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 264:31-38. [abstract] [pdf]

Saitoh, T., Stenseth, N. C. and Bjørnstad, O.N. (1997) Density dependence in fluctuating grey-sided vole populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 66:14-24. [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Champely, S., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh, T. (1996) Cyclicity and stability of grey-sided voles, Clethrionomys rufocanus, of Hokkaido: spectral and Principal components analyses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London Series B 351:867-875. [abstract] [pdf

Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (1996) Is spacing behaviour coupled with predation causing the microtine density cycle? A synthesis of current process-oriented and pattern-oriented studies. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 263:1423-1435. [abstract] [pdf]

Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Saitoh, T. (1996) A gradient from stable to cyclic populations of Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 263:1117-1126. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) A geographic gradient in small rodent density fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:127-133. [abstract] [pdf]

Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Bootstrap estimated uncertainty of the dominant Lyapunov exponent for Holarctic microtine rodents. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 261:159-165. [abstract] [pdf

Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Voles and lemmings - chaos and uncertainty in fluctuating populations. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:363-370. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

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INSECT DYNAMICS

 

Nelson, W.A., Bjornstad, O.N. and Yamanaka, T. 2013. Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability.  Science 341: 796-799. [pdf][supplement]

Haynes, K.J., Bjørn    stad, O.N., Allstadt, A. and Liebhold, A.M. 2013. Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect: isolation of environmental and spatial drivers. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 280 no: 20122373. doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.2373. [pdf]

Yamanaka, T., Nelson, W.A., Uchimura, K. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2012. Generation separation in simple structured life-cycles: models and 48 years of field data on a tea tortrix moth. American Naturalist 179: 95-109. [pdf][supplement]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Robinet, C. and Liebhold, A.M. 2010. Geographic variation in north american gypsy moth cycles: subharmonics, generalist predators and spatial coupling. Ecology 91:106-118. [pdf]

Tobin, P.C., Robinet, C., Johnson, D.M., Whitmire, S.L., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2009. The role of Allee effects in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), invasions. Population Ecology 51: 373-384. [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Liebhold, A.M. and Johnson, D.M. 2008. Transient synchronization following invasion: revisiting Moran’s model and a case study. Population Ecology 50: 379-389. [abstract][pdf]

Yamanaka, T., Tanaka, K,, Hamasaki, K., Nakatani, Y., Iwasaki, N., Sprague, D.S. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2009. Evaluating the relative importance of patch quality and connectivity in a damselfly metapopulation from a one-season survey. Oikos 118:67-76. [pdf]

Yamanaka, T., Tanaka, K. Otuka, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2007. Detecting spatial structures and interactions in the ragweed (Ambrosia artemissifolia L.) and the ragweed beetle (Ophraella communa LeSage) populations. [abstract][pdf]

Tobin, P.C., Whitmire, S., Johnson, D.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2007. Invasion speed is affected by geographic variation in the strength of Allee effects. Ecology Letters 10:36-43. [abstract] [pdf]

Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Tobin, P.C and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Allee effects and pulsed invasion by the gypsy moth. Nature 444: 361-363. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]

Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2006. Geographical variation in the periodicity of gypsy moth outbreaks. Ecography 29:367-374. [abstract] [pdf]

Liebhold, A.M, Johnson, D.M. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity. Population Ecology 48:131-138. [abstract][pdf]

Johnson, D.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Liebhold, A.M. 2006. Landscape mosaic induces traveling waves of insect outbreaks. Oecologia 148: 51-60. [abstract] [pdf]

Økland, B., and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. A resource depletion model of forest insect outbreaks. Ecology 87: 283-290. [abstract] [pdf]

Tobin, P.C. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Roles of dispersal, stochasticity, and nonlinear dynamics in the spatial structuring of seasonal natural enemy-victim populations. Population Ecology 47:221-227. [abstract] [pdf]

Økland, B., Liebhold, A.M, Bjørnstad, O.N., Erbilgin, N. and Krokene, P. 2005. Are bark beetle outbreaks less synchronous than forest Lepidoptera outbreaks? Oecologia 146:365-372. [abstract] [pdf]

Johnson, D.M., Liebhold, A.M., Bjørnstad, O.N. and McManus, M.L. 2005. Circumpolar variation in periodicity and synchrony among gypsy moth populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 74:882-892 [abstract] [pdf]

Satake, A., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Kobro. S. 2004. Masting and trophic cascades: interplay between rowan trees, apple fruit moth, and their parasitoid in southern Norway. Oikos 104: 540-550. [abstract] [pdf]

Satake, A. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2004. Spatial dynamics of seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants. American Naturalist 163: 591-605. [abstract] [pdf]

Økland, B. and Bjørnstad, O. N. (2003) Synchrony and geographical variation of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) during a non-epidemic period. Population Ecology 45: 213-219.[abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M. & Baltensweiler, W. (2002) Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European alps. Science 298: 1020-1023.[abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Williams, D.W. (2002) Variation in spatial synchrony among forest insect species: roles of regional stochasticity and dispersal. Ecology 83: 3120-3129 [abstract][pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N. & Bascompte, J. (2001) Synchrony and second order spatial correlation in host-parasitoid systems. Journal of Animal Ecology 70: 924-933. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. (2001) The impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature 401: 1001-1006. [abstract] [pdf] [Supplement] [Splus code] [Commentary]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Sait, S. M. and Thompson, D. J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology 67:110-126.[abstract] [pdf]

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FISH DYNAMICS


Bjørnstad, O. N., Nisbet, R. M. and Fromentin, J.-M. 2004. Trends and cohort resonant effects in age-structured populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 73: 1157-1167 [abstract] [pdf] [mathematica supplement]

Fromentin, J.-M., Bjørnstad, O.N., Stenseth, N.C. and Gjøsæter, J. (2002) Dynamics of the Norwegian Skagerrak cod: intuition vs inference. Marine Ecological Progress Series 241: 231-234. [pdf]

Fromentin, J.-M., Myers, R. A., Bjørnstad, O. N., Stenseth, N. C., Gjøsæter, J. & Christie, H. (2001) Population regulation in cod along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Ecology 82: 567-579. [pdf]

Fromentin, J.-M., Gjøsæter, J., Bjørnstad, O. N. & Stenseth, N. C. (2000) Biological processes and environmental factors regulating the temporal dynamics of the Norwegian Skagerrak cod since 1919. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 330-338. [pdf

Bjørnstad, O.N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N.C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) A new test for density-dependent survival: the case of coastal cod populations Ecology 80:1278-1288. [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) Cycles and trends in cod population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 96:5066-5071. [pdf]

Frometin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C., Gjøsæter, J., Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W. and Johannesen, T. (1997) Spatial patterns of the temporal dynamics of three Gadoid species along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Marine Ecological Progress Series 155:209-222. [preprint]

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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

 

Yamanaka, T., Nelson, W.A., Uchimura, K. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2012. Generation separation in simple structured life-cycles: models and 48 years of field data on a tea tortrix moth. American Naturalist 179: 95-109. [pdf][supplement]

Metcalf, C.J.E., Graham, A.L., Huijben, S., Barclay, V.C., Long, G.H., Grenfell, B.T., Read, A.F. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2011. Partitioning regulatory mechanisms of within-host malaria dynamics using the effective propagation number. Science 333: 984-988. [pdf][supplement]

Ferrari, M.J., Grais, R.F., Conlan, A.J.K., Bharti, N., Bjornstad, O.N., Wolfson, L.J., Guerin, P.J., Djibo, A. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Seasonality, stochasticity and the dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-684. [abstract][pdf][supplement]

Ferrari, M. J. Bjørnstad, O. N. and Dobson, A.P. 2005. Estimation and inference for R0 of an infectious pathogen using a removal method. Mathematical Bioscience 198: 14-26. [abstract][pdf]

Xia, Y., Bjørnstad, O. N. and Grenfell, B. T. 2004. Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for pre-vaccination epidemiological coupling and dynamics. American Naturalist 164: 267-281.  [abstract] [pdf]

Clark, J. S. and Bjørnstad, O. N. 2004. Population inference from messy data: errors, missing and hidden states, and lagged responses. Ecology 85: 3140–3150. [abstract] [pdf] [appendix]

Satake, A., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Kobro. S. 2004. Masting and trophic cascades: interplay between rowan trees, apple fruit moth, and their parasitoid in southern Norway. Oikos 104: 540-550. [abstract] [pdf]

Rees, M., Kelly, D. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2002) Snow tussocks, chaos and the evolution of mast seeding. American Naturalist 160: 44-59. [abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Estimating epidemiological scaling with a time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 169-184. [abstract] [pdf] [Download data

Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Finkenstädt, B. &  (2002) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Scaling predictability, noise and determinism with the time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72: 185-202.[abstract] [pdf]

Finkenstädt, B., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics: estimation and inference for measles outbreaks. Biostatistics 3: 493-510. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N. & Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Noisy clockwork: time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science 293: 638-643.[pdf] [supplement]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. (2001) The impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature 401: 1001-1006. [abstract] [pdf] [Supplement] [Splus code] [Commentary]

Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414: 716-723. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]  [Commentary]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N.C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) A new test for density-dependent survival: the case of coastal cod populations Ecology 80:1278-1288. [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O. N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C. and Gjøsæter, J. (1999) Cycles and trends in cod population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 96:5066-5071.[pdf]

Saitoh, T., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1999) Density-dependence in voles and mice: a comparative analysis. Ecology 80:638-650. [pdf]

Stenseth, N.C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W., Fromentin, J.-M., Gjøsæter, J., and Gray, J.S. (1999) Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and inter-cohort density-dependence and stochastic processes. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B 266:1645-1654. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Sait, S. M. and Thompson, D. J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology 67:110-126.[abstract] [pdf]

Saitoh, T., Stenseth, N. C. and Bjørnstad, O. N. The Population Dynamics of the Grey-sided Vole in Hokkaido, Japan. Researches on Population Ecology 40:61-76. [pdf]

Kendall, B. E., Prendergast, J. and Bjørnstad, O. N. (1998) The macroecology of population dynamics: animal population cycles in the Northern hemisphere. Ecology Letters 1:160-164. [abstract] [pdf].

Stenseth, N.C., Falck, W., Chan, K.-C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Tong, H., O'Donoghue, M., Boonstra, R., Boutin, S., Krebs, C. J. and Yoccoz, N. G. (1998) From pattern to process: phase- and density-dependence in the canadian lynx cycle. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 95:15430-15435. [abstract] [pdf]

Stenseth, N. C., Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Krebs, C. J. (1997) Population regulation in snowshoe hare and lynx populations: asymmetric food web configurations between the snowshoe hare and the lynx. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 94:5147-5152. [abstract] [pdf]

Framstad, E., Stenseth, N. C., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (1997) Limit cycles in Norwegian Lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 264:31-38. [abstract] [pdf]

Saitoh, T., Stenseth, N. C. and Bjørnstad, O.N. (1997) Density dependence in fluctuating grey-sided vole populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 66:14-24.  [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Champely, S., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh, T. (1996) Cyclicity and stability of grey-sided voles, Clethrionomys rufocanus, of Hokkaido: spectral and Principal components analyses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London Series B 351:867-875. [abstract] [pdf

Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) A geographic gradient in small rodent density fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:127-133. [abstract] [pdf]

Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Bootstrap estimated uncertainty of the dominant Lyapunov exponent for Holarctic microtine rodents. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 261:159-165. [abstract] [pdf

Falck, W., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. (1995) Voles and lemmings - chaos and uncertainty in fluctuating populations. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 262:363-370.[abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

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SPATIAL STATISTICS


Bjørnstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. 2008. Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15: 265-277. [pdf]

Humston, R., Mortensen, D. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2005. Anthropogenic forcing on the spatial dynamics of an agricultural weed: the case of the common sunflower. Journal of Applied Ecology 42: 863-872. [abstract] [pdf]

Seabloom, E.W., Bjørnstad, O.N., Bolker, B.M. and Reichman, O.J. 2005. The spatial signature of environmental heterogeneity, dispersal, and competition in successional grasslands. Ecological Monographs 75: 199-214. [abstract][pdf]

Liebhold, A., Koenig, W. D. and Bjørnstad, O. N. 2004. Spatial synchrony in population dynamics. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 35: 467-490. [abstract] [pdf]

Bjørnstad, O.N., Peltonen, M., Liebhold, A.M. & Baltensweiler, W. (2002) Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European alps. Science 298: 1020-1023.[abstract] [pdf] [commentary]

Bjørnstad, O. N. and Falck, W. (2001) Spatial covariance functions: estimation and testing. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 8: 53-70.[abstract] [pdf] [R code]

Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414: 716-723. [abstract] [pdf] [supplement]  [Commentary]

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