TSIR analysis of measles in England and Wales:
Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B. & Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Endemic and epidemic
dynamics of measles. I. estimating epidemiological scaling with a time series
SIR model. Ecology, in press.
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., & Finkenstädt, B. & (2001) Endemic and epidemic
dynamics of measles. II. Scaling predictability, noise and determinism with the time
series SIR model. Ecology, in press.
Download the 60-city data:
The txt-files are tab-delimited text-files.
: a 599x62 data matrix representing the reported number of measles-cases every fortnight for each of the 60 cities from 1944 to 1966(inclusive). The first two coloumns in the matrix represents (1) year and (2) week number (ending) for each biweek of the year. Coloumns 3 - 62 the raw number of cases reported for each of the sixty cities. The first row is a header giving the name of each of the 60 cities. Note that the measles data is underreported by 40-60%.
[60cities.txt]: a 61x25 data matrix representing the city size and annual number of births for each of the 60 cities. The first two coloumns in the matrix represents (1) city and (2) the median size between 1944 to 1966(inclusive). columns 3-25 represents the annual number of births (between 1944 and 1966) for each of the 60 cities. Note that the number of births was calculated using annual data on city size and natality rates. The first row is a header.
Both data sets can be dowloaded in Microsoft Excel format as [60measles.xls]